Dose Taxation Affect Marriage and Family Planning Decisions?
This paper examines the effects of taxes on the timing of births and marriages in
Japan using the “National Survey on Families.” We estimate the average effect of
the tax deduction for dependents on the timing of births using a new control group,
namely, those mothers whose age at the time of their first birth is 35 or older. We
also contribute to the literature by extending our examination of the impact of the
deduction for dependents to second and third births. We also estimate the average
effect of the spouse deduction on the timing of marriages. The evidence suggests that
for their third child, young Japanese couples time conception to obtain the economic
benefits associated with the tax deduction for dependents, but the size of this effect
is rather small. There is no evidence to suggest that tax incentives affect the timing
of marriages.
